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There was a post-mortem for H. P. Lovecraft: The Case of Charles Dexter Ward. In it the project creator uses the line: "Kickstarter is dying".

I'm currently discussing my graphs for that project over on a /r/IndieGaming thread on Reddit. The project creator is replying in that thread.

Yes, I agree with your assessment that early bird reward lingering into the middle of the campaign can be harmful to the momentum. Do you think the creator believed that 6660 backers would pledge for the early bird rewards quickly and then there would be significant number of backers beyond this that would then start filling in other levels?

Great write-up. I can't imagine having the number of "limited" openings as he did. Limited should be just that - limited to early bidders while the rest of us grind our teeth or cry because we didn't get to the Kickstarter early enough and then we make bigger pledges because we want to back the project and we want the cool stuff. Then if the creators are sneaky they add new limited options at a higher price if the Kickstarter is doing well enough in the 1st 48 hours. At least that is what I see happening outside games on successful projects - such as the latest WakaWaka kickstarter https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/wa ... st-aid-kit

I've added 2 more comments in that thread.

When the early-bird tier is filled, the other following tiers often see increases in the growth rates. While still around the temptation to save money is too much for most backers who are looking at the lower priced tiers below $50.

markalanbaker wrote:Do you think the creator believed that 6660 backers would pledge for the early bird rewards quickly and then there would be significant number of backers beyond this that would then start filling in other levels?

There were 6,660 slots at that early-bird tier. That would be more backers than his previous project's total number of backers. Only 19.1% were filled Overall such a campaign with that goal would need to aim for about 6,000 backers total. The real number can be lower thanks to large pledges in the $2,000 to $10,000 range, but that is part luck. A single $10,000 backer covers about the same distance as 667 $15 backers. For the higher priced tiers, I think the project creator assumes backers are more generous than they really are. Most backers are still acting in self-interest. Even with early-bird slots open there were 43 backers who were willing to pledge $5 more than they needed to in order to back for a copy of the game.

Elegy for a Dead World has an example of a time-limited reward tier. The text says "THIS REWARD TIER IS ONLY AVAILABLE UNTIL FRIDAY 10AM ET/GMT-4" and when the time limit passes the reward tier is manually set to zero remaining slots so no new backers can select it. It creates a sense of urgency to pledge before its gone without having the hassle of trying to estimate how many slots are needed.

I've starred the WakaWaka Base campaign when it launched. There were two other projects I remember: WakaWaka and WakaWaka Power. I did a social entrepreneurship course project on solar lanterns in Africa. The lanterns pay for themselves by adding productive hours onto each day like sewing clothing to earn money and also from reducing the amount of kerosene a household consumes per day. Before Kickstarter I participated in microfinance which is sending out small loans that allow people to buy such things to improve their lives.

I find the WakaWaka products are designed more towards first-world needs so they cost more than some of their rivals because they are aiming for lumens. So far I've been very impressed with the d.light S300 solar lantern I use almost every night. I also have a S20 and a S2.
http://i.imgur.com/pGBbZNu.jpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rjZGcEnMDU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efWlKLWPZ24

Pretty great read and in depth analysis!

GreenbrierGames wrote:Pretty great read and in depth analysis!

Thanks.

There is now a similar discussion about The Black Glove on /r/Games because it too failed to reach its goal.